Hit rate · Week 9
Adonai Mitchell Receiving Yards Over/Under — Hit Rate by Line
Adonai Mitchell · NYJ · WR. Below is how many of his 4 games this season cleared each receiving yards line, beside the rate among every qualifying WR league-wide. Both are counts, not forecasts, and the weeks are named so you can check them against a game log.
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opening line · 35.5
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His own count · at 35.5
Always available — a count needs no book.
The book's price · vig removed
bet365 — cheapest by hold of 1 offering 35.5. Frozen at kickoff.
The two sides are never subtracted. Moving the line moves both, and the gap between them is still not an edge — his count is over his 4 games and the book's number is a price. Different denominators, different things.
Every book · at 35.5
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| Book | Line | Over | Under | De-vigged over | Hold | Cost of 100u |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bet365 | 35.5 | −116 | −116 | 50.0% | 6.9% | 6.90u |
Track this bet · at 35.5
both prices come along, so the close can be scored against yours
Tracking a bet records it. It is not a recommendation and the counts above are not one either — they are his games, and the price beside them is the book's.
Receiving yards
weeks 8, 7, 2, 1
| Threshold | His games | Each game | Share | WRs |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 30 receiving yards | 3of4 | 61% | ||
| Over 40 receiving yards | 3of4 | 50% | ||
| Over 50 receiving yards | 3of4 | 40% | ||
| Over 60 receiving yards | 2of4 | 31% | ||
| Over 70 receiving yards | 1of4 | 24% | ||
| Over 80 receiving yards | 1of4 | 19% | ||
| Over 100 receiving yards | 1of4 | 10% |
His own games this season, against the rate among qualifying WRs over 2022–2026 (5,657 player-weeks).He clears the opportunity cut at 5.76 against 3.
His sample is still thin — 4 games, with 4 more before his own record would carry more weight than the league rate in any estimate built from it.
These are counts, not forecasts. A hit probability was built and measured — it beat the positional base rate by 5.4% of log loss — and it is not shown, because the pre-registered rule required calibration at every rung as well and the worst rung missed it. So this panel shows what he actually did, which needs no model.
Opponent defense — at KC
allowed to WRs · week 9
| Also allowed | Per game | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| receptions | 10.1 | 23 |
| targets | 17.3 | 22 |
| receiving TDs | 0.3 | 32 |
| rushing TDs | 0 | 5 |
| PPR points | 25.1 | 31 |
| points, all positions(7 games) | 18.7 | 29 |
A measurement of games already played this season, not a projection or a difficulty grade. It moves nothing on this page — not the hit count above, not the prices, not the order of anything. We tested an opponent term against 21,980 held-out player-weeks and it made projections worse at every setting, so the engine applies no matchup adjustment and neither does this panel.
What this page will not tell you
Which side to bet, and there is no probability of ours here either. These are counts, not forecasts. A hit probability was built and measured — it beat the positional base rate by 5.4% of log loss — and it is not shown, because the pre-registered rule required calibration at every rung as well and the worst rung missed it. So this panel shows what he actually did, which needs no model.
What the price panel does is divide. The margin comes out of the two prices the book quoted, and the book's own number appears beside his count, each with its own denominator. Neither is subtracted from the other — the gap is not an edge, it is two different measurements of two different things.
A book's line is almost never one of the rungs below: measured over the archive, 6.4% of receiving-yards prices and 5.4% of passing-yards prices land on rung + 0.5, against 76.6% on receptions. That is why the line you can move and the ladder are two panels rather than one table — merging them would put two different thresholds in one row.
Counted from Goal Line prop ladders game logs, snapshot Nov 3, 6:01 PM EST. Prices Nov 3, 6:01 PM EST. His own window is this season; the positional rate is 2022–2026. Every row in the ladder is a strict “more than”, so a game landing exactly on the number is a miss: “over 30” counts his receiving yards at 31 and above, which is the same bet as over 30.5. A book's own line is different: a whole number there can be landed on, and then the stake comes back — a push, void rather than lost, which is why the panel above counts it out of both halves. See the player lookup for his injury row, his game's forecast and the rest of his markets, or the board.